These rankings are built around four main criteria: the ability to translate to the NFL, college stats, coachability, and consistency. While other factors (red flags with injuries/off-field issues, weaker competition, technique) can come in play, the “big four” will be the primary targets of this article. If you enjoy this ranking and want to see other positions, let me know by reaching out on twitter @ItsJacksonTM.
Honorable Mentions
Obviously, there will have been some snubs from the list that can leave you confused as to why they failed to make it. Here, I’ll provide a few notes on why select QBs missed the cut.
KJ Costello, Mississippi State: His tape simply doesn’t inspire me as much as it does everyone else. Maybe his hype is built around the assumption that he’ll succeed at a super high level in Mike Leach’s Air Raid system.F but, for right now, I’m not buying in.
Kyle Trask, Florida: One of my personal favorites in this class. It sucked having to put Trask in the Honorable Mentions category. But, he simply doesn’t have the ceiling that the rest of these QBs have. Expect Trask to assume the Fromm role of this class, a high floor but low ceiling prospect that plays it safe.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M: He still seems super raw, despite receiving over 227 pass attempts in three straight seasons. I’m not a fan of projects at the QB positions, and unless Kellen Mond improves significantly on accuracy and mechanical issues before he finds his way in the upper echelon of the class
Tanner Morgan, Minnesota: I like Morgan, and he shows up to play the big boys, but he also falters when he has an easy opponent. He also makes reads a bit slow for my liking and his arm talent holds him back.
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
He’s been the face of College Football since he stepped on the field as a Freshman, and teams have been salivating at the opportunity to lose and secure his services. People will argue that Justin Fields’ is close to being the top QB in the 2021 draft class. However, he’s nowhere near the QB that Trevor is. He put up 3,665 yards and 36 TDs through the air with another 563 yards and 9 scores with his feet, so he’s by no means one dimensional. He can make any throw on the field, his IQ in the pocket is leagues above anyone else in the class, and he’s become an extremely polished passer all before the age of 21.
He’s been mentioned alongside all-time QB prospects like Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning by draftniks around the globe, so don’t expect that extremely high billing to deteriorate between now and Draft Day.
It seems we knew he was bound for this greatness for a while, though. It starts with the fact that he was the sixth-best recruit of all time coming out of high school, according to 24/7 Sports. He also ran the table in his first year as a starter, which included crushing Notre Dame 30-3 and then beating up on perennial powerhouse Alabama 44-16. He started off a bit rocky, throwing five interceptions in his first 3 games, but would go on to throw only 3 more for the remainder of the season with 31 touchdowns in the same span.
He even threatened to run the table in back to back terms, but unfortunately fell short to a team that was led by the 2019 Heisman Winner, Joe Burrow. He’s earned a 3-1 bowl record and two ACC Championships, as well as earning the following awards: ACC Football Rookie of the Year, Archie Griffin Award, and First Team All ACC First Team honor for his efforts.
At the end of the day, Trevor “Sunshine” Lawrence is a breadwinner and someone that can lead a team to greatness. There will be arguments that others have had more impressive seasons and that there’s more than one option to be atop draft boards, but there’s no debate in my eyes who deserves to be at number one.
Pro Comp: Skinny Andrew Luck
2. Trey Lance, North Dakota State
And controversy begins. Plenty will die on the sword for Fields’ to be here due to his efficiency, success, and the simple fact that he plays against better competition than NDSU ever will. But did that stop Carson Wentz, another NDSU gunslinger, from going second overall? No, and it certainly helps that he threw ZERO INTERCEPTIONS in 287 passing attempts.
It doesn’t matter what level of competition he faced at the collegiate level, that’s an extremely impressive feat. He racked up 1,100 yards rushing to go along with his 2,786 passing yards and looks to somehow improve upon those numbers next season.
I can’t help but see a little bit of Lamar Jackson in his game, as they share a similar love for being a swiss army knife under center and becoming a personified highlight reel. And while Lamar fell due to worries about his frame and ability to transition to the NFL, the reigning MVP has done a great service to Lance by paving the way for that archetype of QB to enter the league and shine immediately.
In an era seemingly inspired by the highlights of Michael Vick in Atlanta, Lance has done the best to refine that and make it his own.
Pro Comp: Lamar Jackson
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State
Are you happy, Buckeyes fans? He only slid one spot down from where most have him ranked and he has plenty of time to shoot right back up to the silver medal. He definitely has a higher quality of opponents than his current rival for second place on this list, as well as a more established pedigree, being the second overall prospect in 2018, as well as the eighth highest-graded high schooler of all time according to 24/7 Sports. He also had a better season than number one on this list, with a third-place finish in Heisman Voting for his efforts in the 2019 campaign. So, what gives? At the very least he should be second, right? Well, not quite. There are still issues that need to be addressed.
First off, he was initially supposed to be a Georgia Bulldog but transferred after his freshman season due to not being happy with QB Jake Fromm being the starter over him, which is understandable. But committing to UGA with a clear cut starter isn’t the questionable decision making that I’ll focus on too much, but rather the missed opportunities that litter his game tape. He overlooked great matchups far too often, opting to scramble instead. While it’s great that a team would be getting a player who can hold their own outside of the pocket, he seemed to prefer it out there more than actually passing.
Now, with his cons out of the way, let’s touch on why he is so highly touted as a prospect. He can certainly hold his own on a roster devoid of Pro Bowl caliber Offensive Linemen because he’s dynamic enough to create his own space. His 41 Touchdowns to 3 interceptions shows off how efficient he can be when he does remain in the pocket, and he has a calm demeanor in high stakes games. And with a little more refinement, he also could have one of the best arms in this class.
Fields is a very talented QB, and there’s no doubt that he’ll follow up on an impressive season and further cement himself in the conversation for QB1. However, I just can’t seem to get over that flaw in his game. It can quite literally be the difference between winning and losing. The good news is that he’s still very young and has a great supporting cast around him in Columbus.
Pro Comp: Robert Griffin III
4. Brock Purdy, Iowa State
Brock Purdy has been my favorite QB to scout at this point in the draft process. He has a high-quality arm, enough leg talent to avoid being one dimensional, and he has a catalog of games that can convince you that he has what it takes to be the guy. His biggest games include He chucked 5 TDs against Oklahoma, threw 354 yards against Texas, and was a big contributor to a 72-point game against ULM. Even if he is my favorite prospect to follow thus far, I can’t deny that the other three names already mentioned have earned their seat at the table.
Purdy has managed to fall into the field general category that was at one point the norm but has seen his style become a breath of fresh air as dual threats become a dime a dozen. Some will call it a dying breed that doesn’t fit in the modern NFL. However, QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Jimmy Garoppolo still represent a model of how teams can succeed with a QB more inclined to stay in the pocket. Plus, plenty of coaches around the league continue to look for these types of passers to conduct the offense. Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady were still very sought after when they hit the open market in recent years.
Purdy’s inclusion in this list may have a few people scratching their heads, but that’s ok. Many have him comfortably in the 6-8 range, but I project that he’ll rise up boards with more exposure. Iowa State has shown plenty of faith in the QB, and many fans can’t wait to see what the upcoming season has in store for the Cyclone.
Pro Comp: Tony Romo
5. Jamie Newman, Georgia
Georgia’s initial succession plan to Jake Fromm was a dual-threat passer with Heisman Potential written all over his game tape. While we touched on Fields' decision to depart from Athens, they still got their wish. Enter Jamie Newman; the former Wake Forest Demon Deacon that blew up on the scene in the ACC. He drew plenty of interest when he decided to transfer out of the old gold and black. Well, Kirby Smart got his wish and we’ll see a very different breed of Bulldog Football next year.
I would argue that Newman has the best arm out of the dual-threat QBs on this list. But for every awe-inspiring pass, there’s an equally as curious and unsound throw that needs to be corrected. He threw 11 interceptions last season, which places him directly under the microscope by scouts due to his potential poor pocket vision.
But many of his mistakes can be attributed to his poor surroundings, as his Wake Forest squad was undoubtedly not up to par with his talents outside of star wide receiver Sage Surratt. That excuse has now disappeared, and we’ll get a more clear look at whether or not he can keep up with the big boys.
Newman has the most potential to skyrocket or plummet on this list. Transfers can often be placed in awkward situations and struggle to grasp a new playbook, but they can also run with it and play the best football of their career. For every Joe Burrow, there are three Kelly Bryant’s that fail to translate into new surroundings.
Pro Comp: Steve McNair
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