On August 30, 2016, the Dallas Cowboys made a selection in the fourth round that they had no idea would be as impactful as it was. They selected Dak Prescott with pick 135. The season before, their franchise QB Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone, causing the Cowboys to lose 11 of their 12 games without him. It was clear that a better backup was required, and they took initiative by drafting the Mississippi State field general in the fourth round. Dak had other plans. One Rookie of the Year trophy and two Pro Bowls later, America’s Team is now at a crossroads. .Dak has reportedly turned down a five-year, $175,000,000 deal and there seems to be no traction on coming to an agreement. But with Andy Dalton behind Dak and a long list of talent that will need a new contract soon, backing up the brinks truck for the QB worth it?
Dak Prescott has been a great QB for the Lone Star State. His 97-36 ratio is phenomenal, and he threw only four picks in his rookie year. His career completion percentage is 65.8%. He finished second in passing yards in 2019 behind only Jameis Winston’s 5,109 through the air. He’s led the ‘boys to the playoffs twice already, including a 13-3 season in 2016, good enough for a first-place finish. Dak has also shown the ability to be a playmaker outside of the pocket. He has 21 touchdowns on the ground in four seasons to go along with 1,221 total yards with his feet.
He seems like the perfect Quarterback to lead Dallas for many more years, but there are a few major problems. His offensive weapons consist of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and newly drafted CeeDee Lamb, which is maybe the most talented receiver corps in the league. He also has star running back Ezekiel Elliot, who has made 3 pro bowls in his four seasons. On top of all of that, the Cowboy’s O-line has been notoriously great for a handful of years now. So why has he only been able to lead them to a 1-2 record in the playoffs? Surely with that level of talent around him, he’d have been able to do more, right? Sure, some blame can be shifted to the defense and their below-average seasons. But Kansas City is fresh off of a 17th place finish in yards allowed and managed to win a Super Bowl for their troubles. To put it in perspective, Dallas finished ninth last year in the same category but managed to only win eight games.
The young QB has established a reputation as a “game manager.” Fans and experts alike know what they’re going to see when Dak gets onto the field. Short passes will result in a small gain but are safe and reliable. His completed air yards per completion last year was 7.7 yards, with his receivers hauling in another 5 yards after the catch. That stat indicated that on most of his attempts, he's throwing in three yards short of a first down, providing a more clear look at why people claim he “checks down” on most passes. He doesn’t take many risks, and it seems to be a waste of the talent that he has out wide. Also, while some stats indicate that he is a clutch QB, he actually has a 32% 2ER, a stat that indicates a passer's success rate and giving his team the lead inside two minutes of the fourth quarter while being down by seven or less. He doesn’t deliver like his stats might indicate, and his team has seen their fair share for struggles when they’re counting on him.
Perhaps the biggest part of all of this is the contract saga he’s going through itself. When your franchise quarterback is due for a new contract, very rarely do we see this much struggle to get the deal done. It’s the most important position in football and history shows just how hard it is to find a great passer. So, why would Dallas not just hand over the money if they believed it was him? In simplest terms, Dak’s talent does not outweigh the talent that would be lost due to the financial burden of his massive contract. Let’s say this deal will be a 4-year deal worth roughly $45,000,000 a year. According toSpotrac, Dallas is set to need extensions for Leighton Vander Esch and Chidobe Awuzie in that time, as well as preserving enough cap space to maintain a full squad of players. At least one of those players would have to go, and that would be a significant hindrance to the defense unless they’re able to draft extremely well. They’ll also likely see the exit of many smaller but still important role players on both sides of the ball, leaving more and more holes in the team before the deal is up.
The last point I would like to bring up is who would hypothetically replace Dak, and they don’t have to look very far. Andy Dalton, longtime Bengals QB who was recently outed to make way for Joe Burrow, is already in the house. They signed him to a deal this offseason and has experience with leading a team and would cost significantly less to keep around. He’s never had an offense anywhere near this but has managed to throw 204 touchdowns to 118 interceptions and play in four playoff games. He’s been an average QB with an above .500 record throughout his career, but there’s almost a guaranteed improvement for any passer with that offense around them.
All in all, I don’t believe it’s worth it for Dallas to pay Dak Prescott. Don’t get me wrong, he should be starting in the NFL for seasons to come, I just don’t believe it should be in Texas. The situation feels far too similar to the saga we witnessed with Kirk Cousins in Washington before he found his way to Minnesota, and Dak’s situation could very well end the same as Kirk’s. We don’t know who will be under center for Dallas after this season, but it will certainly be an interesting event to follow.
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